We never have enough information to fully understand our situations, and often we have to make good decisions under these circumstances. Here is an approach to making the best decision you can even when you don't have much to go on.
First we have to recognize that we make up models that simplify our experiences, taking in only what we have learned to be the most important information.
Because we are using these simplified models we need to measure them by their effectiveness in the situation rather than their absolute accuracy to reality.
To make your models better, it is important to start out with the most direct path towards your goal.
As you gain more experience, you will begin to recognize more important information and formulate patterns. As this occurs your model will begin to become more complex. You shouldn't try to skip steps and rush this though, instead focus on getting the best information you can and then act on that.
The important thing is that you don't confuse your models with reality itself, and that you treat them as flexible. Since the model doesn't need to conform perfectly to reality, you can change it to help you make useful choices faster and more quickly. This is extremely applicable to martial arts training as well.